Grand National shortlist

Many Clouds (photo)

Rock solid bet to be the first since Red Rum to win the great race more than once. The one to beat but prone to something well handicapped.

  
OFaolains Boy

Great jumper who could get into the necessary rhythm to go close. Trainer in form. Non Runner

The Druids Nephew (below)

A case of what might have been last year and would kick myself if not sticking with him this time despite a very different prep and a change of jockey. Some of trainers runners running below par.

Goonyella

Midlands National winner and second in Scottish. Rain would be a great help as stays all day. Good each way bet if doesn’t get too far behind.

Kruzhlinin

Was my ante post pick last year but didn’t run and is now with a new stable. Not totally convincing at Cheltenham but has been primed for this. Trainer returning to form after a quiet Cheltenham.

Le Reve

Will he act on a left hand track? If he does he has the class to win this. Worth a small punt at 50/1

Spare £2?

The novice and youngest OneNightinVienna is one of my 50 to follow and has got to be worth a couple of quid at 50/1 
 

Elsewhere on the card (all each way)

1.45 Arpege D’Arlene, Silsol

4.20 Roc D’Apsis, Cloudy Too

6.15 Thunder Sheik, Nabucco  

 

 

Grand National reflections

Another exhilirating renewal full of drama and what ifs.

What if The Druids Nephew hadn’t knuckled over when bowling along in front 4 from home? I’d  have been over £150 better off for a start!

Aidan Coleman didn’t deserve to have his hopes snubbed out so cruelly after showing racing in such a great light with his head cam clip in the Topham. 

What if Monbeg Dude hadn’t been impeded and had to make up a lot of ground? 

What if Soll hadn’t bled when running a great race? 

 What if connections had decided to put Many Clouds way for the summer after his disappointing effort in the Gold Cup?

Ultimately Many Clouds emphatically answered the doubters to complete a unique Hennessey/National double.

But arguably the real heroes were the flag waving Ruby Walsh and the vets who tendered to Blathazar King. Here’s hoping he makes a full recovery.

Then we can truely hail this as a memorable National for all the right reasons.

2015 Grand National shortlist

I’ve narrowed the Grand National runners down to a short list of 6

 

Shutthefrontdoor

Irish National winner in 2014 and farewell ride for AP McCoy. Relatively inexperienced and stable not firing consistently mean he’s not good value but capable if taking to these fences.

Spring Heeled

Long term target following Cheltenham Festival win in 2014 and backed by me in the Autumn. Trainers form a worry.

The Druids Nephew

 Impressive Cheltenham Festival winner. Enforced change of jockey here but trainer is bang in form and is the one to beat for me. 

  

Court By Surprise

 Horse I followed with some success and jumps well but not an easy ride. If he gets into a rhythm he could be placed at least.

Night In Milan

 Been quietly brought to the boil for this and looks a solid each way bet. James Reveley is plenty good enough if the horse is good enough.

Cause of Causes

Won well over 4 miles at Cheltenham and stable who previously won with Silver Birch is in great form this week.

Prediction

1. The Druids Nephew

2. Shutthefrontdoor

3. Cause of Causes

4. Court By Surprise

5. Night in Milan

6. Spring Heeled

Early thoughts on the Grand National

I’ve been keeping an eye on the Grand National ante post market since last April but the publishing of the weights this week means the pace now quickens in search of the 2015 winner.

My initial shortlist includes Shutthefrontdoor, Night In Milan, Kruzhlinin and Spring Heeled

What’s on your shortlist?

2014 Grand National selections

Decent profit yesterday despite the lack of winners showing the value of each way betting in competitive fields.

My first blog was 12 months to the day and among the 4 I recommended for the National was Auroras Encore! Should have quit whilst I was ahead 😄

So for the 2014 National my selections are –

Double Seven
Triolo D’Alene
Mr Moonshine
Walk On
The Rainbow Hunter

I have already backed Monbeg Dude and will also have a small interest on Mr Moonshines stablemate Vintage Star both of whom are trained just 2 miles from where I live.

In the supporting races I am going for –

1.30 Kilcooley
3.25 Johns Spirit
5.10 Ulbatique

0.5 pt e/w patent

1.30 Wilde Blue Yonder
3.25 Victor Hewgo
5.10 Katgary

0.5 pt e/w patent

2014 Grand National guide to all the runners

Name Age		My Rating / odds
Tidal Bay 13	At 13 years old would be a popular winner. Top weight for a reason and dont give up early on this one as often swoops late.	**** 14/1
Long Run 9	Former Gold Cup winner. Jockey has good record around Aintree. Will either love or loathe this challenge. Not for me.	*** 12/1
Hunt Ball 9	Checkered history including ill fated time in the States but very capable if somewhat quirky	*** 50/1
Roi Du Mee 9	First or second in 18 of his 36 races and won over £250,000 but last two runs dont bode well.	Non runner
Triolo D’Alene 7	Henessey winner. Slightly disappointing in Gold Cup when had breathing problems. Only 7 so still improving	**** 20/1
Rocky Creek 8	Trainer very sweet on this one having trained winner in 2012. Second in the Hennessey and one for the short list.	**** 16/1
Quito De La Roque 10	Was highly regarded a couple of years ago. No worthwhile recent form to suggest he’ll win this.	** 40/1
Colbert Station 10	Unseated AP McCoy when fancied last year. Chance may have gone.	** 33/1
Walkon 9	Trainer coming into form at just right time and has touch of class but would like to have shown more last time. 2nd over these fences twelve months ago in the Topham but this is 12 furlongs longer.	*** 50/1
Balthazar King 10	Ran very well for a long way last time before fading. In good form winning at Cheltenham Festival but hard to see improving on last year.	*** 20/1
Wayward Prince 10	Talented but not consistent. Might be the type to take to this but 2nd at Wetherby is best this season.	*** 66/1
Mr Moonshine 10	Faded last year but in better form this season and trained by Sue Smith who won with Auroras Encore last year.	*** 50/1
TeaForThree 10	Looked the winner last year coming to the last before finishing 3rd. Could be placed again but there may be others who have improved more.	*** 8/1
Across The Bay 10	Led for along way last year. May repeat but stamina will probaly run out again,	** 40/1
Double Seven 8	Won 5 in a row in Ireland before having a break until a pipe opener at Leopardstown recently. Interesting.	***** 14/1
Battle Group 9	Very quirky. Could refuse at first or run a blinder. On balance I would avoid.	** 50/1
Buckers Bridge 8	Unproven at this sort of distance.	** 66/1
Lion Na Bearnai 12	Irish National winner in 2012 but pulled up in Scottish equivalent in 2013 and probably not as good as he was though won beating 4 rivals in February.	*** 33/1
Prince De Beauchene 11	Could this be 3rd time lucky having being fancied in previous years?	*** 20/1
Monbeg Dude 9	Rugby and royal connections will make this a very popular winner. Big chance. Trained by Michael Scudamore whose grand father rode the winner Oxo in 1955. Theres always a story about the winner!	**** 12/1
Big Shu 9	Ran well at Cheltenham and probably one of Irelands best chances	*** 25/1
Burton Point 10	Has some top class form but not recently	** 20/1
Our Father 8	Only raced 12 times and is obviously not easy. Has ability but comes with risks.	*** 40/1
Mountainous 9	Welsh National winner in December in heavy ground. Place prospects.	*** 40/1
The Rainbow Hunter 10	Departed at 8th last year. Not without a chance at decent odds.	** 33/1
Vintage Star 8	Trained by Sue Smith and has a good chance on best form and is probably approaching peak. However prone to jumping errors which is a worry round here.	*** 40/1
Chance Du Roy 10	Has form over these fences but not over this sort of distance and is a hard ride and had a tough rave at Cheltenham.	** 33/1
Hawkes Point 9	Ran well when second in Welsh National and should be at his prime if ground is soft.	*** 33/1
Kruzhlinin 7	Has form to go close and trained by Ginger “Red Rum” McCain’s son Donald. Only 7 so could improve.	*** 66/1
Pineau De Re 11	Been in good form and eye catching fast finishing 3rd at Cheltenham last time	*** 20/1
Golan Way 10	Won at Warwick earlier this month in only second run in 15 months. Has refused in the past. Will this be his kind of race?	** 66/1
Twirling Magnet 8	Won at Cheltenham earlier this season. This is much tougher.	** 50/1
Vesper Bell 8	Fell at the first over these fences in December but if that was a blip then other form gives him every chance.	**** 50/1
The Package 11	Unseated rider here back in 2010. Difficult to train but finished 3rd after absence of 12 months at Cheltenham recently.	*** 20/1
Raz De Maree 9	3rd of 5 last time. Hard to fancy	** 66/1
Rose of The Moon 9	Won at Wetherby in January but this is a big ask.	** 50/1
Shakalakaboomboom 10	Ninth when joint favoutite in two years ago. Others preferred now.	** 25/1
Alvarado 9	Won grade one race at Cheltenham in Novemebr but risen 10Ibs since.	** 40/1
Last Time D’Albain 10	3rd in Topham here last April. Shown little since	** 50/1
Lost Glory 9	Shown nothing this season	Non runner 50/1
One In A Milan 9	Nothing to recommend him other than trained by National specialist Ewan Williams when it comes to getting horses placed.	**
Goonyella 7	8th in Welsh National. Still only 7 but others preferred.	**
Goulanes 8	Non Runner	**
Swing Bill 13	Ran well for a long way last year before fading but at 13 wont be getting any better.	** 66/1
Soll 9	Often touted as a National sort. Form this season doesnt inspire confidence	Non runner
Minella For Value 8	Not run since October and doesnt look good enough	non runner
Night In Milan 8	One a decent race at Doncaster last time and looks sure to make a bold show	non runner
Tranquil Sea 12	6th in the Topham in 2013 and will probably get round.	**
Alfie Sherrin 11	3rd in Irish National in 2012 but patch form since. Place prospects if on a going day.	Non runner